Thursday 21 April 2011

On Blocked Shots

In the NHL a big deal is often made about blocked shots. After watching the Caps nearly lose Brooks Laich to injury last night I wondered again why teams put such emphasis on them.  For one thing, players lack the padding to safely block such shots so they regularly incur injury from doing so. Secondly, the shots blocked are typically low percentage outside shots. Thirdly, the player takes himself out of the play when going down to block a shot. A number of times in the NYR-Washington series I've seen a player simply skate around a player who had gone down to block a shot. (These people aren't Bobby Orr in terms of their ability to spring up after blocking a shot.)  Since the NHL records this stat, I used it to do a Pearson correlation calculation between the total shots a team had blocked and points accumulated during the season:

NYI138773
TOR132385
PHI1317106
NYR130193
ATL129280
MTL127296
WSH1257107
TBL1249103
ANA124899
EDM121962
CGY120994
DAL120495
CAR120391
COL117668
BOS1172103
BUF116896
CHI114497
SJS1141105
MIN112986
FLA112572
OTT111574
CBJ111481
STL109987
PIT1082106
VAN1071117
PHX105699
LAK103298
NSH100799
DET917104
NJD87581

Unsurprisingly, to my mind, total blocked shots doesn't track at all with point scoring success, the Pearson correlation number is actually negative, -.1428. Of course, this isn't definitive proof of its ineffectiveness, no one claimed it was a key to the game and maybe the stat gathering is bad or maybe some teams block only key shots while other teams do a lot of ineffective shot blocking. Nonetheless, it remains difficult for me to see why people think this is a laudable thing for a hockey player to do.



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